Predictions for 2018

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Bruce Libby
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MIke

MIke
I understand your concerns ,I probably agree with the basis of them.
However, you lost me and others I suspect, after the 15th or so reiteration of your point.,
You are in close competition with another poster in the beating dead horse competition.
Good luck.

Melvin Udall
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Are you saying we have a

Are you saying we have a horse race here on AMG?

Might end up a dead heat, right?

Bruce Libby
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Yes, it seems to be a

Yes, it seems to be a competition, so it is a race.
As for the end result , well it is close but not yet finished , but you may be correct.

GIven any other criteria we might have to accept a winner based on number of repetitions of same content..

Mike G
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Emike

Emike

When they can just pull trillions out of thin air and buy whatever you want to prop up whomever whatever they wish, they are like a monetary god to a peon like me.

How can you have true price discovery a true market when you have a monetary god buying assets without any concern for their worth other than to prop up a bank or corporation? My money wealth would be at risk if I buy some asset, I'd have interest to pay, I might lose everything, central banks have nothing to lose, they just make money out of thin air. How when you have a supply of such money can it not skew demand, and why is it such money allowed in the market place?

For us pissants we actually have to put up some kind of collateral or show some worth to get a loan or a paycheck while they just crank on a computer and wiz there is a trillion dollars from your fav uncle, it is amazing. I guess though in many ways it isn't magic, they do have the full force of our, their military and police forces to back them up and that is fiat's full worth, if you don't believe in it's worth we will kill you.

But I'm not an economist and therefore I cannot speak economics, I just criticize policies made by Policy Makers, who have proven themselves throughout the ages and certainly the past decades as always looking out for the good people under their dominion.
Here's a good example of their stewardship, negative interest bonds. That is where you buy a bond from some sovereign nation and they will pay you no interest and less than it's initial purchase price at maturity. That is actually the case in the some eu nations, sign me up,

You have got me Emike I'm a moron who just likes to link to doom porno because it makes me feel intelligent, you win.

Bruce I'm just like the presstitutes, if I keep repeating the same lies at some point they become the truth. ; )

anonymous_coward
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@johnw:"AC did you to think

@johnw:
"AC did you to think that just maybe maybe that the decrease in the tax rate for corporations may help to offset the rise in wages ,particularly the minimum wage increase here in Maine and that may translate in to price fof goods and services not riising so sharply in the immediate future.
As to the deficit spending , I know it is something that is only applicable to individuals , but when most have less money coming in they spend less the cut costs,,,,,A concept completely loss on Washington...I know that runs counter to the progressive ideal that the role of government is to create more government......"

I'm not against the cut in the corporate tax rate, since large corporations aren't paying it in the first place. We might as well repatriate that money.

I'm against the cut to the top rate. I would rather see the corporate rate cut to 0% and pay for it by jacking up the capital gains/dividends rate up what regular income is, and increasing the top rate.

As for deficit spending, no amount of revenue cut is going to affect entitlements, since both parties are too chickenshit to even think about touching them. They would rather see us spend more money in interest payments than raise the retirement age to 67.

anonymous_coward
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@Economike:

@Economike:
"anon -

How did you determine whether someone cares about deficits? In particular, about the federal budget deficit?"

Everyone here is supporting the tax cut. I don't hear (other than Mike G) complaints about how the GOP is bankrupting our future but I can bet that that's all anyone talked about when Obama increased deficit spending to get us out of the 2008 recession.

johnw
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Sticking with my predictions

Sticking with my predictions for 2018:

The FBI will continue unscathed as a political arm of the progressives

Bill Clinton will drop dead
Hilarity will declare that she is now president because Bill dropped dead and the crown should go to her.....

The government finally admits that there IS real inflation....someone from congress actually went to a grocery store....

The Russian collusion witch hunts dies ,but no apology is offered to Trump ......Schumer declares it as fake news.

Jeff Sessions is shit cannned by Trump ,appoints Trey Gowdy mass resignation of congress begin.

Harry Reid is revealed as a sexual abuser and is part of the sexual hush fund, claims aliens made him do it.....more research money needed.

Members of the progressive black caucus take a political junket to a small tropical island ,while observing the previously declared extinct dodo on one side of the island the island tips over and they all drowned.........shelia lee and Maxine waters are declared national treasures by Comedy Central

A nuclear war head explodes on the launch pad in North Korea killing rocket man.It is discovered that an eight grader in Teaneck NJ hacked into their computer system and accidentally detonated the bomb. John Kerry tries to take credit for a successful negotiation.

Elizabeth Warren publicly apologizes for her mis-speaking on her Indian heritage. Now says she has taken a NatGeo genome test and is officially black.....

Obama is awarded the Nobel Peace prize again........for his work with Hezbollah .

Finally Democrats claim Jimmy Hoffa's body has been found buried in the basement of Trump Tower ,Nasty Pelosi calls for a special prosecutor...

Top

Economike
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Thanks, anon -

Thanks, anon -

You have some refreshing and thoughtful ideas about tax policy. Agreed that individuals, not corporations, pay taxes. Policy could be a lot less distorting.

I've written often that the US fiscal trajectory of expanding debt plus unfunded liabilities plus static tax base is the momentous political issue of our age. In sum, I worry about sovereign debt.

In the specific case of the Trump tax cuts, however, I don't buy the meme that they'll worsen the deficit or, at least, make much difference. I think it's a fair assumption that they'll increase GDP by some amount greater than the cost of new debt.

Robert Reed
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Predictions?

Predictions?

The ACA becomes a footnote with no replacement or alternative in site.
Healthcare insurers will ask for double digit increases for 2019
Trump will remain President when Libs realize the alternative are far worse
Welfare reform takes place in DC only to be thwarted in Maine when GOP led delegation worries more about re-election and campaign donations that why they were elected in the first place.

anonymous_coward
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@Economike: "In the specific

@Economike: "In the specific case of the Trump tax cuts, however, I don't buy the meme that they'll worsen the deficit or, at least, make much difference. I think it's a fair assumption that they'll increase GDP by some amount greater than the cost of new debt."

Well I'm not really worried that it's going to collapse the economy or anything like that, I just feel like we should be reducing deficit spending when times are good (I consider 3% growth good) so that we can increase spending when the inevitable recession hits.

As many here have pointed out, Paul LePage has done a fantastic job of padding Maine's rainy day fund so we don't have to raise taxes or cut services the next time a recession comes around.

This is the kind of thinking I like to see: Don't bankrupt the future because you feel the need to score political points in the short term.

Sadly, the GOP is in desperate need for political points now to prevent a complete drubbing in the midterms. So, they are just throwing money at people in a sad attempt to win them over, at the expense of whoever is in power the next time there's a recession.

It's a political game, and a bad way to run the country.

Now, I can already hear half a dozen AMGers typing, "but the Democrats are terrible at fiscal discipline!" Yes, but we elect Democrats so we can get services for the poor and rights for minorities. We are supposed to elect Republicans so we can get our fiscal house in order.

Economike
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It seems we can agree that

It seems we can agree that neither the Dems nor GOP have been strong on fiscal discipline lately. I disagree, though, that the new tax package is simply throwing money. I see the reduced corporate rate as a significant positive reform.

Mike G
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http:/

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/unhinged-part-4-the-real-idiots-ar...

Oops more Doom Porn by David Stockman.

I can't understand what he is saying, I'm too stoopid, but he isn't happy.

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