2010 Gubernatorial GOP Primary

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Peter
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All we have on Abbott is what

All we have on Abbott is what he did professionally. His work in DC is who he is. It defines him. Thats all we have to go on. That needs to be explored.
As for the GOP race...
My ideal canidate is jacobson. He wont have money come November. So my head says no- unless he has cash
Lepage is a No-Victim of circumstances in Waterville- not the leader people claim
Beardsely- No. an accomplished man- but really struggling in the game of politics
Poloquin. No. Poor manager. His campaign is a mess.
Abbott- I want to like him but the more I look, the more questions I have. He is popular, but is he accomplished? Not sure he can win in November.
Mills- very liberal, but has name ID and money. Can Win in November
Otten- not sure yet. Has many holes but could win in November

Roger Ek
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I posted what I expected the

I posted what I expected the results to be and said so.

LePage 32%

Abbott 26%

Beardsley 19%

Jacobsen 16%

Mills 7%

If some tragedy took LePage out I would vote for Beardsley. I would not vote for any of the others.

Dan Billings
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LePage needs Beardsley to be

LePage needs Beardsley to be in single digits to win. If Beardsley gets a large number of social conservatives, as he appears to be doing, LePage can't win. LePage needs the tea party types and social conservatives to pull it off. His missteps on social unions may have finished him with social conservatives.

Rick Blaine
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Stimulus Package Money was

Stimulus Package Money was sent to Maine... and this legislature/governor WASTED it on filling holes in THIS budget.

Next time around, those same holes will be there... and the Stimulus "windfall" did NOTHING for Maine.

Some thoughtful people did take the pragmatic attitude that while not FOR borrowing nearly a Trillion Dollars from our grandchildren... if it's coming to Maine - let's not blow it on stupid spending.

Which is what the legislature and governor did.

What a mess! Maine's next budget starts ONE BILLION DOLLARS in the hole.

Good work folks!

PressMan247
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Abbott should be the nominee

Abbott should be the nominee due to his connections, but I think for most people, they have no idea who he is? People at AMG know who he is, but beyond that, I think if you asked joe schmo on the street, they wouldn't have a clue.

I think Otten has all the name ID.

If Beardsley were to drop out and endorse LePage, which I don't think will happen, he'd have a good chance at winning.

The next 66 days should be interesting to watch.

Rick Blaine
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",,,Abbott should be the

",,,Abbott should be the nominee due to his connections..."

WRONG!

His whole campaign is a credibility-grasping exercise in name-dropping (some relevant and some not): "I worked for Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins and my Dad was football coach at UMO..."

But there's no discussion of what HE has done; what HE has accomplished; or (gasp!) what HE did as Collins' chief of staff.

PAY ATTENTION ---> Being immersed in politics and compromise and saying-one-thing-and-doing-another is NOT what Maine needs as "experience" for the next Governor.

The same-old, same-old Political Connections are exactly what we must avoid in 2010!!!

Henry Clay
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Setting aside some of the

Setting aside some of the rancor for a moment, Rick's comments got me thinking.

Is there a way to list the duties of Governor?

Staff- Governor is the Chief Executive Officer and Responsible for the Running of State Agencies
I know that each has experience leading staff: Abbott ran Collins' statewide campaign and her federal staff, Beardsley ran Husson University, Jacobson ran the St Lawrence and Atlantic Railroad, LePage runs Marden's and the City of Waterville, Mills ran his law practice, Otten ran Sunday River and other ventures, Poliquin has run an Assets Management firm and other ventures. I don't have numbers on how many staff each has led but that would be an interesting comparison and how well they managed the staff. Obviously there are big differences in the types of positions and sectors (governmental vs policy).

Understanding of Government Operations
Abbott has been involved with federal politics for 12 plus years, LePage has been involved with local politics for several years, Mills has the most experience with State of Maine politics, Beardsley was an Aide to VT Governor in the 1970s and to Alaska Governor in the 80s. I suspect Jacobson and Otten have had dealings with the government as it dealt with their positions in other enterprises.
If you add in understanding of the legislative process, Abbott and Mills probably have much more experience.

Leadership
Very subjective. Harder to measure quantifiably. Very important and I am sure each of us has reasons why our candidate has demonstrated leadership.

Smart
I think it is fair that all are smart men. Abbott and Poliqun are Harvard-educated. Jacobson graduated from the US Naval Academy. Beardsley ran a University. LePage pulled himself up from poverty and with the help of the Snowe graduated from college. I'm not sure about Otten's educational background. Mills is regarded by the media as the smartest man in the Legislature.

Electability
Abbott has won statewide races for Collins. LePage has won tough elections in Waterville and helped other Republicans like Snowe and Collins. Mills has won election and reelection to the Legislature.

I am sure there are other categories you can come up with, feel free to add or build on the above.

Dolley Madison
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"Beardsley ran a University.

"Beardsley ran a University. LePage pulled himself up from poverty and with the help of the Snowe graduated from college. I'm not sure about Otten's educational background."

Beardsley is the only PhD in the race...his dissertation having something to do with conflict resolution in a mixed use forest...

Lapage graduated from Husson...before Beardsley led it out of debt and into University status...and went on to get a B.S. in accounting and finance...and later on an MBA from the University Of Maine...

Otten received a B.S. in Business Administration from Ithaca College...

"Mills is regarded by the media as the smartest man in the Legislature."

Every time I read this...and before I erupt into distracting peals of laughter...I wonder to myself what standard they use...He is not the most educated...nor the one with the most common sense...He does not seem to catch on quickly...perhaps he has MENSA membership none of us know about? What a joke...

Dan Billings
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Being the smartest person in

Being the smartest person in the Legislature would not be anything to brag about.

Duke Harrington
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At present, I am leaning

At present, I am leaning toward my top three being
1. Lepage
2. Abbott
3. Jacobson

I will NOT support Mills and Otten. If the nominee is anyone but LePage, I will consider voting for Cutler. If it's Mills or Otten, there's no question - my vote WILL go to the independent.

A few random thoughts on each of the candidates:

Steve Abbott:
Is he even still in the campaign? I've heard virtually nothing from him since his announcement. I half wonder if he isn't so self-assured that he'll win that he's saving his little nest egg for the general election, although I presume we'll see a bevy of ads from him in the final two weeks of primary season. I actually think he'll be the eventual nominee. Still, I agree with Pressman247: I don't think "Joe in the Big, Green Pick-up Truck" has clue one who Abbot is. I admit that, beyond his resume of job titles, he's a cipher to me as well. Of course, primary voters are not, as a general rule, the regular Joes, so, he's got the clear advantage based on his connections.

Bill Beardsley
I had written off Mr. Beardsley as an unelectable amateur, the Alex Hammer of the GOP set. I have to admit, hearing him at the Old Town Tea Party only reinforced that prejudice. After hearing what others have claimed about how that event went down, I'm inclined to cut him some slack. However, as a libertarian-minded individual, social issues like gay marriage et. al. are not my bugaboo. My conservativism leans much more to the fiscal side of the ledger. I also feel that public sector unions are the single, largest weight on our economic well being. I question if, Mr. Beardsley, given his University background, is a man with the ability or the inclination to wage that battle.

Matt Jacobson
As with Abbot, I personally have heard very little from the Jacobson camp. I did hear him deliver the keynote address at the 2009 annual dinner of the Oxford Hills Chamber of Commerce. At that time, he was, IIRC, the only announced candidate. I found his speech to be heavy on generalizations, but light on specifics, although that's probably was to have been expected at that early stage of the campaign. Still, most of his ideas for improving the Maine economy have centered, so far as I can tell, on tourism. I'm not so certain Maine should looking to that one, particular industry as a golden egg. Also, while I have heard much of his leadership of Maine & Co., I have not heard much of that firms' particular success stories. Can anyone enlighten me? Can anyone point me to specific policies he's announced an intention to pursue as governor?

Paul LePage
I come from good, Waterville mill-working stock myself, so I'm inclined to *want* to like LePage. Still, I had bought into the conventional wisdom that he can't raise any money, and so, is unelectable. I had hoped he would pull out in time to face Mike Michaud, whom I presumed he could beat. However, the Old Town Tea Party changed my mind. After listening to his stump speech, and observing the reaction from the crowd, I think LePage is striking just the right note for this election cycle. His small government rhetoric certainly rings true to my libertarian sensibilities. I think he is just the right person to face the Democrat nominee, if he can paint that person as more of the same government-as-usual. I agree with Dan, who said LePage needs to pull in the Tea Party crowd to win. However, I disagree that he also needs the social conservatives. My observation is that many, perhaps most, of the Tea Partiers have been nonvoters in the past, at least during primary season. I think LePage can draw enough new primary voters from the primary crowd to offset any loss among social conservatives. But can he beat Abbot?

Peter Mills
I will not vote for Mills under any circumstances. I do not support "Clean" Election candidates. I do not trust anyone to reduce the size and scope of government who starts by first sticking out is hand for a slice of the public pie. Moreover, I find the idea that he's willing to sit back and collect a government handout based on the work product of traditional candidates particularly galling. It's just that type of attitude the Tea Partiers are rebelling against.

Les Otten
I've met Otten a few times. I do not like the man. He just strikes me as one monstrous, hulking ego. I also think his particular business experience is TOO similar to what got this country, and this state, into the state their in. We need someone who will not take the actions he did, which he touts as his major business success. Also, when I was a reporter, his campaign screwed me out of a story. So, screw him. =)

Bruce Poliquin
I don't know much about Poliquin, but I don't see much in his resume that I expect to resonate with the average Maine voter, especially north of the Volvo line. Also, his demeanor and speaking style strike me as fairly effeminate. Not that that's a bad thing, but, I'd be dishonest if I said I do not expect it to matter on a subconscious level to some voters. I predict that, if Poliquin is the nominee, we will see a largish gender gap in his vote total. I'd expect many male voters, especially in the second district, to abandon Poliquin for a comparatively more manly candidate, like Rowe, or Cutler. That's a silly thing to say, I know, but, you must admit, people are weird.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. As always, your mileage may vary.

bob emrich
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Duke, before you make too

Duke, before you make too many assumptions, you should check out the history. If you want to know about Mr. Beardsley's "inclination or ability" to wage the necessary battle with the unions, ask around about the faculty at Husson. No union. Ask why the Maine Bar Association is preventing accreditation for Husson's law school - because there are no tenured professors.
Being calm and polite does not always mean timid.

Dan Billings
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It is the American Bar

It is the American Bar Association that accredits law schools. The Maine State Bar Association plays no part in that process.

I think Bob's comments about Bill Beardsley are well taken.

Duke Harrington
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Bob, Thanks for the

Bob,

Thanks for the information. You are entirely correct, I made the mistake of assuming all colleges are cut from the same cloth. I did not know there is no union and no tenure at Husson (A school without such things? A concept WAY beyond my ken), nor was I aware of any such connection to the school's struggles to get an accredited law program. I will be sure to take a closer look at Mr. Beardsley's history, if only because I suspect there is a greater purpose to his gubernatorial run.

Do you know him personally? If so, does he sincerely believe he can win? I have to wonder if his campaign is actually meant to lay the groundwork for some future post. Perhaps, Commissioner of Education, should a Republican win in November? Based on what you say, I'm sort of excited about that prospect.

Duke

bob emrich
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Thanks for the clarification,

Thanks for the clarification, Dan.
Duke,
I cannot speak for him or for his campaign, but yes, I know him personally. He sincerely believes he can win and is not laying any groundwork for his future. He would chuckle at the thought and make a remark about his age. I am of the opinion that he understands the issues (energy, economy, education, etc.) better than any of the other candidates. There is a great deal to like about the man.

bob emrich
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With regard to social

With regard to social conservatives.......

I think social conservatives are a very significant factor, especially in the Republican gubernatorial primary and especially now. This has been discussed in great, great detail in recent years. There might not be enough social conservatives to win by themselves (we are working on that), but there are enough to make it hard to win without them and almost impossible to win while offending them. (There is a way it can be done, but you won't hear it from me). Candidates should not ignore them or try to fool them. They (we) have learned a lot about the process of elections and legislating. There are very few, if any, constituencies who can deliver a larger grassroots army.

Forthepeople
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Be specific, why not Otten

Be specific, why not Otten and LePage?

Forthepeople
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LePage is the only candidate

LePage is the only candidate who can mobilize the French vote, the Independents who believe in individual rights and people who speak from the heart.

Forthepeople
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it should of been a

it should of been a prediction otherwise wait until June 8th!

Dolley Madison
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"You are entirely correct, I

"You are entirely correct, I made the mistake of assuming all colleges are cut from the same cloth. I did not know there is no union and no tenure at Husson (A school without such things? A concept WAY beyond my ken), nor was I aware of any such connection to the school's struggles to get an accredited law program."

Had he been allowed to speak longer than the minute that Dave Lincoln audibly gave him at the meeting you attended...you and everyone else in that room would have known that...and would have heard how he dragged Husson out of the red and into the black...without direct tax money...

Forthepeople
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LePage believes in Social Law

LePage believes in Social Law Contracts - (protecting the individual's civil rights) - can anyone definitively define "Civil Unions"? How is it defined in Webster's dictionary?

Forthepeople
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It is LePage not Lapage

It is LePage not Lapage Dolley!

Dolley Madison
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"... can anyone definitively

"... can anyone definitively define "Civil Unions"? How is it defined in Webster's dictionary?"

Yes, yes...I remember the answer..."that depends on what the definition of is is..."

Thrasybulus
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Duke: After the money reports

Duke: After the money reports come out on April 17th, you'll see some eye popping numbers from Beardsley, who not only has a shot at the nomination, but will finish in the top three with Abbott and Otten.

LePage is totally disorganized. Poliquin is clueless in Maine. Jacobson has no money and no base. Mills needs liberal votes in the GOP primary, but I don't think he gets 20%.

If you wanted to make some money, and could get a bookie to take the bet, put it on Beardsley to win & to show.

Rick Blaine
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Thrasy: Can I have a tall

Thrasy:

Can I have a tall cold glass of whatever it is you're drinking?

Dolley Madison
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"LePage is the only candidate

"LePage is the only candidate who can mobilize the French vote, the Independents who believe in individual rights and people who speak from the heart."

That is quite the sweeping generality...Are you saying that people of French extraction vote based not on issues...but based on the nationality of the candidate?

And are you saying that Paul Lapage is the only candidate who appeals to independents?

Steven Scharf
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April 27, 2010 42-Day

April 27, 2010
42-Day Pre-Primary Report

Due for gubernatorial candidates only.

Steven Scharf
SCSMedia@aol.com

Bob Stone
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Dolley... Please spell the

Dolley...

Please spell the man's name correctly. LePage. Thanking you in advance.

pleasant-view
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"Being the smartest person in

"Being the smartest person in the Legislature would not be anything to brag about."

Dan, it is obvious from your know it all attitude that you have never heard "that whack job" Mr. Scott speak at a candidate forum. If you had, as I have, you would realize his message is on target, honest, and most importantly sincere. Now you and I both know the only serious candidates are the ones favored by the political elite, such as yourself, but does that in fact make this young man - who has made a very positive impression at every forum he attended a "whack job?" He may be a dreamer, but why such harsh words?

Dan Billings
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What would you call someone

What would you call someone whose experience was running a small store in a rural town that thinks he should run Wal-Mart? I would call such a person a wack job. That is effectively Mr. Scott.

Roger Ek
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Dan Billings asks what we

Dan Billings asks what we would call a hardware store owner who thought he could run WalMart.

I would call him Sam Walton.

And Bob Stone;
Don't give Ms Madison grief about the spelling of candidates' names. She can't even spell "Dolly".

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